Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Iran's Climate Change Impacts

1.) According to the Climate Change 2007 article, all of Asia should expect to see a warming trend in this century. It is likely central and western Asia will see a decrease in summer time precipitation. One direct quote to back this is, "With regard to precipitation, a key issue is related to the moisture transport from the northwest by westerlies and polar fronts. How far the projected drying of the neighboring Mediterranean penetrates into these regions is likely to be strongly dependent on accurate simulation of these moisture transport processes" (Region Climate Change Projections). The slowing uppar air stream will cause less moisture to be brought into the Asian region, especially Iran. Spring and fall should also see less precipitation and more dry spells. Winter, however, may see an increase in precipitation in the winter. Also, the country should expect a 2 ° C to 4 ° C  increase in temperature in the next century.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-11-9.html

2.) The IPCC 2007 projects that most river basins in all of Asia will recede due to global warming. Coastal regions of Iran wil be in danger of flooding form increase in sea level rise. Figure 10.4 displays Iran's region, and it could see crop yields decrease up to 30% in 2050. Climate change will most likely cause water stress in the region. "Mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise" (WGII summary for policy makers). 


http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/figure-10-4.html

3.) Once again, according to the IPCC executive summary, we should expect to see a a decrease in precipitation and crop yield with an increase in famine and diseases. Increase in population and decrease in water supplies will lead to struggle over water and hunger issues. Other issues include coastal areas. "Sea-water intrusion due to sea-level rise and declining river runoff is likely to increase the habitat of brackish water fisheries but coastal inundation is likely to seriously affect the aquaculture industry and infrastructure particularly in heavily-populated megadeltas" (Executive Summary). On the coast of Iran, toxicity of cholera is likely to increase. 

4.) Some of the big issues for Iran is a decrease in water supply. Iran already gets no precipitation in the summer months for most of the country. Global warming will impact this situation even more so. According to google's global awareness project, "Iran's Lake Hamoun is fed primarily by water catchments in neighboring Afghanistan.When droughts occur in Afghanistan, or when water in watersheds that support Lake Hamoun are drawn down for other natural or human-induced reasons, the end result is a dry lakebed in Iran" (Global Awareness). This leads to fights over water supplies. River beds in this water scarce nation are already drying up, and ground water wont last forever. This will all contribute to increase in diseases because of the lack of nourishment and other factors

1 comment:

  1. Wow! That is insane that Iran is going to have a huge issue with their water supply decreasing in numbers. Droughts are going to be even more significant because of Global Warming, causing nations to fight over their water supplies.

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